Sanlipo (002876) Company Comments: Third-Quarter Performance Exceeds Expectations, Fourth-Quarter Guidance Is Optimistic
Event: Revenue for the first three quarters of 10.
42 ppm, an increase of 61 in ten years.
34%; net profit is 23.62 million yuan, an annual increase of 4.
01%; of which Q3 had a single quarter income of 4.
250,000 yuan, an increase of 86 in ten years.
27%; net profit of 22.4 million yuan, an annual increase of 496%; the company expects long-term net profit of 4986-63.71 million yuan, an annual increase of 80-130%, corresponding to the Q4 single quarter median of 33 million yuan.
The third quarter performance exceeded expectations, and the inflection point trend was further confirmed: the company’s Q3 single quarter revenue4.
2.5 billion, an increase of 86% in the same period, the release of Hefei base revenue is smooth; net profit in a single quarter was about 22.4 million (repeated in the same period last year), which was a quarter-on-quarter increase from 15.44 million in Q2 single quarter, further considering Q3 exchange rate losses and 13 million newIncreases and decreases in losses, better realization, and the trend of performance inflection points was further strengthened.
From the perspective of the specific split, the parent company’s Q3 net profit exceeded 50 million yuan, which exceeded expectations, and then the probability of Hefei was about 27 million. However, considering Q3’s inventory impairment provision of 13.2 million (mainly Hefei) and some exchange losses assumed, it is estimated thatThe estimated range is about 10 million, which is larger and smaller than the previous Q2 forecast, and the improvement trend is clear.
At the same time, the company guides the median Q4 single-quarter net profit of about 3300 million. We expect that the conversion of the Q4 Hefei base product structure adjustment will be completed, and the profit will usher in a breakthrough improvement. At the same time, the Shenzhen headquarters is full of orders.Above the median interval.
For small-size order funding claims, the Shenzhen headquarters ‘profit elasticity is underestimated: The company’s Shenzhen headquarters is mainly small-sized, and its customers’ terminals are mainly Huawei ZTE. Since the end of 18, it has successfully cut into terminal brands such as OVM, and domestic substitution has accelerated.
The annual profit of the strike headquarters is about 90 million. Since Q2 this year, technical reforms, price adjustments, and cost reductions have taken a three-pronged 深圳桑拿网 approach. The single-quarter profit of the parent company Q3 has exceeded 50 million, and the profit elasticity has been seriously underestimated. It is expected to become an important performance growth point next year.one.
At the same time, the company’s IPO Longgang project is targeted for small size. Mass production is expected to begin in the second half of next year. This coincides with new customer order breakthroughs and the 5G replacement wave. The production cycle is gradually expanded.It’s bright 1.
More than 5 times, will drive the company to maintain high growth of about 50% in 21 years.
The Hefei plant continues to improve, and the dawn of profit is imminent: The company’s Hefei project is targeted at large-size products. Large-size products are calculated on the basis of flat area and account for more 深圳桑拿网 than 80% of polarizer demand.The progress of localization has been slow to advance. It was not until the fourth quarter of 2018 that large customers were delivered in batches. Since the beginning of the year, the Hefei plant has continued to increase its 1490mm production line (10 million square meters of production capacity) and revenue has increased.There is a certain running-in period in terms of rates, etc. From the quarterly data, there has been some improvement. Looking ahead to Q4, the accelerated release of the 1330mm production line (6 million square meters) will increase revenue and increase, and the product structure adjustment will also see benefits.
According to our calculations, the single-month income reaches about 60 million, which is expected to reach the break-even point. Full-production income can reach about 90 million and the single-month profit is about 5-6 million, which will bring great performance flexibility next year.
The domestic domestic replacement of the industry is at the starting point of acceleration, and the 30 billion big market provides sufficient room for growth: With the rise of the internal panel industry, we expect that the size of the domestic polarizer market will reach about 300 trillion, and localization has accelerated significantly since 19 years.The localization rate is expected to reach 9-10% by the end of the year, which is at a critical point of accelerated outbreak.
Only two domestic companies can supply in large quantities, and the company is the leader. If the localization rate reaches 40-50% in the future, domestic manufacturers are expected to profit about 15 billion in the market, and for the company, it is expected to achieve 8-10 billion in revenue.
The company’s production capacity has been adequately reserved in advance. We estimate that it will only be about 6 million square meters in 18 years, 15 million square meters in 20 years, and more than 25 million square meters in 21 years.The ultra-wide production line (40 million square meters) and Putian’s 1490mm (10 million square meters) capacity are released, which is expected to double again.
Investment suggestion: Domestically produced polarizers can be used to replace good tracks, and the long-term growth logic is clear. The third quarterly report further confirms the company’s upward inflection point. Considering that the profit elasticity of the company’s headquarters exceeds expectations, we raise the company’s net profit for 2019/20/21 to 0.
94 trillion, corresponding to 0 EPS.
82 yuan, with a growth rate of 125% / 222% / 46%, with a “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: The RMB exchange rate depreciated more than expected, and the Hefei plant turned low when it turned around.