Shimao (600823): The fourth quarter has ample cargo value and is far more powerful than the industry

The company’s revenue and profit grew steadily, in line with expectations.

The company achieved operating revenue of 150 in 2019Q1-3.

700 million, an annual increase of 4.

8%; realized net profit of 25.

4 ppm, an increase of ten years.

2%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the 失败:重查 listed company.

500 million, an annual increase of 4.

4%.

Sales fluctuated slightly, and the value of goods in the fourth quarter was sufficient.

On January 9, 2019, the company achieved a contract value of $ 162 million, a decrease of 19 a year.

4%, to achieve 54 of the annual target.

4%; the sales contracted area was about 770,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.

7%.

The company’s real estate construction area from January to September was approximately 1.51 million square meters, an increase of 68% per year; the completed area was approximately 440,000 square meters, an increase of 16% per year.

Due to expectations such as the release of the pre-sale certificate, the company’s push is mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter, with about 30 billion sales targets unchanged.

The land 杭州桑拿网 acquisition intensity is high to ensure the ability to continue operations.

In 2019Q3, the company gradually recruited bids for 92.

600 million, and acquired a 51% stake in the Hangzhou Jiangjiacun project of Taihe Group and a 50% stake in Tianjin Zhongmin Aipu Urban Construction and Development Co., Ltd. for USD 1.5 billion, thereby adding Hangzhou, Tianjin, Jinan, ZhuhaiIn other second-tier cities, there are about one million flat soil storage areas, and the amount of land acquisition / sales amount reaches 76%.

It is expected that the amount of land taken in advance is expected to exceed 10 billion.

Moreover, the company’s land acquisition is known for its high total price and low floor price, and comprehensive development. For the Zhuhai project acquired in October, the cost of land acquisition per project is 56.

400 million yuan, the floor price of 5828 yuan, land sales ratio is expected to not exceed 30%.

The layout of soil storage is superior.

The company’s annual revenue in 2018 was 27.1 billion U.S. dollars, an annual growth of 25%. The steady growth in sales provided security for the company’s 2019 performance.

As of the third quarter of 2019, the company has a land reserve of more than 15 million square meters. It is estimated that it can be sold for more than 5 years by static calculation. The area with rich soil reserve layout is preferred.

The first, second and third lines account for 12% / 46% / 42%, and the Yangtze River Delta / South China and Haixi / Pearl River Delta / Others account for 23% / 8% / 27% / 42%.

From January to September, the company’s real estate leasing area was about 1.53 million square meters, and the rental income was about 5.

It has a comprehensive leasing rate of about 91% and a net interest rate of over 70%. It is a stable source of cash flow.

Cash flow is sufficient and leverage is still decreasing.

Reorganization of assets and liabilities by the company excluding advance receipts56.

5%, a slight decrease of 1 before 2019H1.

8 units, the leverage ratio is stable.

The company’s gross profit margin for 2019H1 is 30.

7%, a decrease of 0 from the previous month.

66 units are still at a high level in the industry.

As of the end of September, the company had 70 monetary funds in hand.

500 million, enough to cover 61.

$ 600 million of short-term interest-bearing debt.

Maintain BUY rating and earnings forecast.The company implements the group’s two-wing strategy, with more than 15 million square meters of high-quality residential + commercial land reserves, accounting for 90% of the first and second tiers in terms of value.

The quality of assets is high, the severity of the market is underestimated, the merger management idea has been actively changed, and the leverage ratio has been steadily increased. This year is the starting point for the improvement of ROE. In 2019, the expected return is more than 5%.

It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2019-21.

9/33.

5/40.

0 million yuan, a year growth rate of 15.

8% / 20.

1% / 19.

6%.

The corresponding EPS are 0.

74/0.

89/1.

07 yuan.

The current price corresponds to a PE of 5.

8X, 4.

8X, 4.

0X.